🇦🇷 Javier Milei
Argentine Bonds Show Doubt on Milei Win
What happened
Argentina's dollar bonds show a decrease in the implied probability of President Javier Milei winning reelection in 2027, with a current estimate of 45% according to FMyA, a Buenos Aires economics consultancy. This is down from about 90% in July. The country risk, which is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries, closed at 852 basis points on November 11, 2026.
Why it matters
The country risk and bond prices imply that investors are pricing in a higher risk of a policy change after 2027, which could make it harder for Argentina and its companies to borrow abroad. The country risk affects the cost of borrowing for the government and companies. The market's perception of the risk is reflected in the bond prices and country risk level.
Key facts
- Argentina's dollar bonds imply a 45% chance of President Javier Milei winning reelection in 2027
- The country risk closed at 852 basis points on November 11, 2026
- Argentina's country risk is more than double the July low
- The country risk affects the cost of borrowing for the government and companies
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Publisher evidence used
Reporting attributed to riotimesonline.com. WorldLeadersNews links readers to the publisher and does not present a headline-only item as a full article analysis.
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